Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 3.701494 4.327822 5.021447 5.845681 6.797548 7.861419 9.139796
2025-11-16 2.739916 3.585585 4.624381 5.990115 7.734037 9.881669 12.722246
2025-11-23 2.105481 3.027526 4.262008 6.026012 8.470902 11.727212 16.378563
2025-11-30 1.763317 2.745765 4.159936 6.326296 9.539798 14.104531 21.047521
2025-12-07 1.448535 2.421220 3.914064 6.345308 10.172167 15.920712 25.151481
2025-12-14 1.204526 2.146837 3.679189 6.315660 10.690994 17.597346 29.230693
2025-12-21 1.023730 1.935270 3.498032 6.324485 11.244910 19.365708 33.643572
2025-12-28 0.956054 1.904111 3.607092 6.825297 12.666983 22.689655 40.978404
2026-01-04 0.848497 1.777879 3.524562 6.968217 13.475606 25.062918 46.969699
2026-01-11 0.761123 1.673155 3.461825 7.131268 14.330729 27.601151 53.528580
2026-01-18 0.672934 1.549761 3.341717 7.161458 14.930894 29.733039 59.573865
2026-01-25 0.586064 1.412613 3.171116 7.061806 15.256753 31.375480 64.865488
2026-02-01 0.491052 1.242161 2.909510 6.746049 15.128281 32.173940 68.720258
2026-02-08 0.425398 1.127282 2.750158 6.626982 15.397671 33.805971 74.464375
2026-02-15 0.373551 1.035430 2.627157 6.569052 15.789639 35.734781 81.051367
2026-02-22 0.349625 1.009444 2.653593 6.859620 16.997284 39.526048 92.021441
2026-03-01 0.312901 0.942088 2.568047 6.867787 17.552431 41.956383 100.294076
2026-03-08 0.278769 0.874739 2.470972 6.831520 17.995031 44.182168 108.356907
2026-03-15 0.250937 0.819553 2.396057 6.839523 18.545206 46.713945 117.400694
2026-03-22 0.247354 0.835833 2.515938 7.378398 20.500575 52.763470 135.351854
2026-03-29 0.229079 0.803138 2.494771 7.532102 21.482864 56.581098 148.359951
2026-04-05 0.213271 0.775034 2.482094 7.707595 22.546015 60.713933 162.582689
2026-04-12 0.194558 0.733359 2.422569 7.740075 23.226267 63.960206 174.938564